Preview: Ecuador vs Brazil – Tite debut

Brazil lay down in the 6th place of the World Cup qualifiers, so in other words it would not have booked a ticket to Russia if the process was already over. Luckily, with 6 rounds already gone there are 6 others remaining. So, it is halfway and each round constitutes of 2 games so Brazil must secure 21 points out of 36 possible in order to mathematically guarantee its place. In other words, Brazil needs to win every single home game left, plus get an away draw in each round in order to snatch a securing 24 points which would then put the team in a comfortable position. Brazilians don’t feel that it will be such an easy task, as a matter of fact according to a recent poll – the majority believes that Brazil will for the first time in its history fail to qualify to the World Cup.

https://twitter.com/BrazilStats2/status/771318586619092993

In previous rounds, the 2 games in the Qualifiers were held on Friday-Tuesday, this time it’s Thursday-Tuesday which means new coach Tite has 1 day less than the usual. To his misfortune, this happens on his debut and away to Ecuador at a high altitude of 2.85km where the National Team needed extra days to adapt to the climate – instead of that, it will be getting one less. With no friendlies ahead of his first game in charge, Tite only had 2 training sessions with a full team as several players either played on Sunday and were not fit enough to train on Monday, or either arrived late. The coach dedicated most of this short time to help players adapt at altitude as well as set pieces.

https://twitter.com/BrazilStats2/status/770966103568818176

In training sessions, Tite put a lot of importance on how to defend set pieces after he watched several videos of Ecuador and deduced that it would be one of their most important weapons. For that, he has opted for a backline and midfield that average 1.82m. On the other hand, Tite gave important to the positioning of Willian and Neymar when defending corners, in order for them to be able to launch counter attacks with fast transition.

https://twitter.com/BrazilStats2/status/771334453918625792

The advantage of a home team at high altitude is to stretch play. It’s commonly known that at high altitude, away players feel their body is heavier i.e the ball rolls too fast. So it’s common sense that Ecuador want the tempo to be fast, and it’s also common sense that Brazil tries to slower the tempo. For example, goalkeeper Alisson found difficulty to stop shots in training, as he says he felt the ball was too fast. In fact, the ball is not faster than usual. It’s his body which is slower than usual due to altitude. Ecuador players’ body is already used to such conditions. Another example would be the weather, take a Danish person to Rio in the summer and he will melt under the season. Take a Brazilian to Denmark or Norway when it’s snowing and his body will freeze. For the locals, the process is always easier. This is why Tite is going for a pragmatic approach. The best anti-tactic is to close down spaces and introduce a compact side.

WHY CLOSE DOWN SPACES?

Another strong point for Ecuador will be counter attacks, especially on the wings. Jefferson Montero can be a nightmare for Dani Alves. In normal conditions, Alves struggles to keep-up with the pace of speedy wingers so imagine under conditions where his body is heavier than usual. This is why I’m surprised Tite chose 2 laterais who are not known for their defensive skills. Central midfielder Christian Noboa will immediately launch Ecuador’s wingers with his diagonal balls, as soon as the opportunity comes – and a lateral pairing of Alves-Marcelo is just so…..2013-2014.
For choosing Marcelo on the left, perhaps Tite wants him to operate as winger, allowing Neymar to cut-in to a more central position. In order for Marcelo to be able to operate as winger with freedom, this will require special covering from Casemiro and Renato Augusto. The same applies for Paulinho with Alves.

For all these reasons, it could perhaps be understood why Tite’s only controversial choice in the starting lineup was to prefer Paulinho (who already worked with him and understands the philosophy) over the physically soft Coutinho who was subbed out at the 60th minute in Liverpool’s last game after his poor performance and apparently fitness issues. The fullbacks are controversial for being too offensive minded, one would think Filipe Luis would have marked better than Marcelo. But this invites me to believe that if Tite preferred Marcelo over Filipe, it is for tactical reasons i.e Tite wants Marcelo to go forward a lot, otherwise he would not start him because he knows what his qualities are, and defending is certainly not his strongest point. I guess Tite wants Alves to go up as well, which is why the tall and physically strong Paulinho is a better option to cover him and allow him to operate as traditional Brazilian lateral while going up (even if I have my remorse on calling Alves an offensive option as despite not being able to defend one-on-ones, he is simply way too slow and lacks the explosiveness to take on opponents as he edges closer to the penalty area. To his defence, Alves is a wonderful playmaker).

https://twitter.com/BrazilStats2/status/771343471156297728

Brazil faces the risk of failing to qualify for 2018, this is why Tite was appointed so it is logical that he is already under pressure to bring immediate results. As Real Madrid key midfielder Carlos Henrique Casemiro suggested, in the next game against Ecuador the result will be far more important than the style.

https://twitter.com/BrazilStats2/status/770959665484161024

Ending up with the least important part of the article…here’s time for meu palpite:

I see a draw, possibly a 1×1 even-though I am not a fan of putting scorelines as some balls could hit the post or go inches wide. The scoreline does not always reflect which side played better. As a matter of fact, in football teams may dominate without translating their domination into the scoreline. Sometimes a team could dominate the largest parts of the game but fail to score due to lack of luck or poor finishing, and then end-up conceding late and losing the game. Unlike basketball for example, where the dominant side can more easily reflect its domination on the score. So to summarize, by saying 1×1, I see a very tight game with both sides able to decide due to small details.