Tite’s right hand Cléyton Xavier said the initial idea is to utilize Coutinho wide, just like he plays at Liverpool rather than as central midfielder. If Neymar was to be utilized there as well, it could turn-out to be a direct competition which would eliminate one of the two from the starting lineup (I know who most people would pick). In order to prevent this situation from occurring, I was thinking about a system that fits them both – keeping in mind that Coutinho does not offer enough regularity during 90 minutes to play as deep CM in a 4-1-4-1.
So I imagined something like that: Coutinho behind either one of Gabigol and Gabriel Jesus, plus Neymar in a 4-3-1-2 system. But then I was like, Brazil has a lot of quality on the wing so it would be a waste to automatically decide to bench the likes of Willian and Douglas Costa.
So I thought, why not try a 3-4-1-2 system? It’s a famous tactical approach which is common in Italy and already proved its success on several occasions.
Here is a little example of what we could see:
PS:
* It is more about the idea of the system than about who starts. I don’t really mind whether it is Alisson or Diego Alves, Rodrigo Caio or Geromel, Costa or Willian, Marcelo or Alex Sandro or Willian-Costa together, Gabigol or Gabriel Jesus etc.
* I am not a fan of Rodrigo Caio as defender at top level, but in a system of 3-center backs, he has the potential to excel as the advanced one between them or even, and to operate in the Bonucci role due to his good ability in distributing the ball (but so could Silva).
* Willian can also work as wing back, but I chose Costa because he is more explosive. The fullback will likely drop deeper than a genuine winger usually does, so to advance from a deep position towards the oppositions’ penalty box – the more explosive you are, the faster you get your way there. Bruno Peres is also another “explosive” option, if I may say.
* I did not include Casemiro or any destructor because I assumed that the back-line should be protected enough with 3 center backs as well as 2 energetic wing backs who should drop deep when dispossessed (just like Candreva and de Sciglio brilliantly did at the Euros) in order to retain balance. I chose Renato as he is probably the Brazilian CM with the best deep-lying playmaking skills. Allan was included because of his ability to operate as dynamic box-to-box CM and run with the ball into advanced positions. When you have a lot of center backs, you would rather have 2 volantes who do not want to sit deep all game long. I’d imagine Allan playing the Kléberson role of 2002. No one could ever forget his assist to Ronaldo’s second goal which decided the final against Germany, surely? It’s one of the most symbolic moments of Brazil NT’s recent history – the Rivaldo dummy made it even more eye-catching.
Brazil lay down in the 6th place of the World Cup qualifiers, so in other words it would not have booked a ticket to Russia if the process was already over. Luckily, with 6 rounds already gone there are 6 others remaining. So, it is halfway and each round constitutes of 2 games so Brazil must secure 21 points out of 36 possible in order to mathematically guarantee its place. In other words, Brazil needs to win every single home game left, plus get an away draw in each round in order to snatch a securing 24 points which would then put the team in a comfortable position. Brazilians don’t feel that it will be such an easy task, as a matter of fact according to a recent poll – the majority believes that Brazil will for the first time in its history fail to qualify to the World Cup.
In previous rounds, the 2 games in the Qualifiers were held on Friday-Tuesday, this time it’s Thursday-Tuesday which means new coach Tite has 1 day less than the usual. To his misfortune, this happens on his debut and away to Ecuador at a high altitude of 2.85km where the National Team needed extra days to adapt to the climate – instead of that, it will be getting one less. With no friendlies ahead of his first game in charge, Tite only had 2 training sessions with a full team as several players either played on Sunday and were not fit enough to train on Monday, or either arrived late. The coach dedicated most of this short time to help players adapt at altitude as well as set pieces.
In training sessions, Tite put a lot of importance on how to defend set pieces after he watched several videos of Ecuador and deduced that it would be one of their most important weapons. For that, he has opted for a backline and midfield that average 1.82m. On the other hand, Tite gave important to the positioning of Willian and Neymar when defending corners, in order for them to be able to launch counter attacks with fast transition.
The advantage of a home team at high altitude is to stretch play. It’s commonly known that at high altitude, away players feel their body is heavier i.e the ball rolls too fast. So it’s common sense that Ecuador want the tempo to be fast, and it’s also common sense that Brazil tries to slower the tempo. For example, goalkeeper Alisson found difficulty to stop shots in training, as he says he felt the ball was too fast. In fact, the ball is not faster than usual. It’s his body which is slower than usual due to altitude. Ecuador players’ body is already used to such conditions. Another example would be the weather, take a Danish person to Rio in the summer and he will melt under the season. Take a Brazilian to Denmark or Norway when it’s snowing and his body will freeze. For the locals, the process is always easier. This is why Tite is going for a pragmatic approach. The best anti-tactic is to close down spaces and introduce a compact side.
WHY CLOSE DOWN SPACES?
Another strong point for Ecuador will be counter attacks, especially on the wings. Jefferson Montero can be a nightmare for Dani Alves. In normal conditions, Alves struggles to keep-up with the pace of speedy wingers so imagine under conditions where his body is heavier than usual. This is why I’m surprised Tite chose 2 laterais who are not known for their defensive skills. Central midfielder Christian Noboa will immediately launch Ecuador’s wingers with his diagonal balls, as soon as the opportunity comes – and a lateral pairing of Alves-Marcelo is just so…..2013-2014.
For choosing Marcelo on the left, perhaps Tite wants him to operate as winger, allowing Neymar to cut-in to a more central position. In order for Marcelo to be able to operate as winger with freedom, this will require special covering from Casemiro and Renato Augusto. The same applies for Paulinho with Alves.
For all these reasons, it could perhaps be understood why Tite’s only controversial choice in the starting lineup was to prefer Paulinho (who already worked with him and understands the philosophy) over the physically soft Coutinho who was subbed out at the 60th minute in Liverpool’s last game after his poor performance and apparently fitness issues. The fullbacks are controversial for being too offensive minded, one would think Filipe Luis would have marked better than Marcelo. But this invites me to believe that if Tite preferred Marcelo over Filipe, it is for tactical reasons i.e Tite wants Marcelo to go forward a lot, otherwise he would not start him because he knows what his qualities are, and defending is certainly not his strongest point. I guess Tite wants Alves to go up as well, which is why the tall and physically strong Paulinho is a better option to cover him and allow him to operate as traditional Brazilian lateral while going up (even if I have my remorse on calling Alves an offensive option as despite not being able to defend one-on-ones, he is simply way too slow and lacks the explosiveness to take on opponents as he edges closer to the penalty area. To his defence, Alves is a wonderful playmaker).
Brazil faces the risk of failing to qualify for 2018, this is why Tite was appointed so it is logical that he is already under pressure to bring immediate results. As Real Madrid key midfielder Carlos Henrique Casemiro suggested, in the next game against Ecuador the result will be far more important than the style.
Ending up with the least important part of the article…here’s time for meu palpite:
I see a draw, possibly a 1×1 even-though I am not a fan of putting scorelines as some balls could hit the post or go inches wide. The scoreline does not always reflect which side played better. As a matter of fact, in football teams may dominate without translating their domination into the scoreline. Sometimes a team could dominate the largest parts of the game but fail to score due to lack of luck or poor finishing, and then end-up conceding late and losing the game. Unlike basketball for example, where the dominant side can more easily reflect its domination on the score. So to summarize, by saying 1×1, I see a very tight game with both sides able to decide due to small details.
Always thought Oscar was made for Italian football. Notice how many times he has scored against Juventus, Inter, Milan or even Italy’s NT. Right now, he is again thriving under an Italian coach who is imposing an Italian system (with a few modifications). I watched Chelsea’s last game and they looked very collective – not only when attacking but also when defending. Oscar often double-teamed, (or even triple) in more than one occasion in helping Chelsea regain possession. He worked his ass off all over the game and is imposing himself as an undisputed starter, in the beginning of this campaign.
Cesc entered as substitute last week and “resolved” the lack of creativity by providing two assists – which were apparently not enough for him to bench our brasileiro. Conte is someone who places the system, THEN picks the players. For him, the system is above everything. It’s not the amount of assists that the box to box CM role Oscar is playing, that matters the most – it is rather how hard he works, how well he is at pressing and regaining the ball in order to maintain balance in the shape of the team. For idealists like Conte who are very convinced by their tactical scheme, they are not ready to let go of their convictions at the first match where a plan B works. They are rather ready to give it time, and show patience (something that Brazilian coaches obviously could take a note or two, from).
It took Oscar an Italian coach to revive him – as he is a very smart and tactically capable player. Which invites me to raise a question mark, on whether this Oscar with the level he has shown in these first few games of the season, is good enough to guarantee himself a spot at Brazil’s National Team.
In the current options we have to operate in a 3-man midfield, I’d say Casemiro/Renato (either a destructor or a deep lying playmaker) behind Allan and Oscar seems the most reasonable choice. I don’t see Coutinho being as effective in a central position in such a shape. Oscar would bench him for the same reason he is now benching Cesc at Chelsea.
That said, I am not too convinced either that Coutinho’s best position on the left. As a matter of fact, I’m struggling to localize his best function on the field.
One last note about Oscar: I think it’s people’s expectations of him that led to all the criticism he is getting (besides his obvious sudden drop of form). But fans who don’t rate Oscar – at all – do this, mainly because in their mind they look to him as a pure attacking midfielder/10, and start comparing him to the likes of Kaká and drawing conclusions: he lacks pace, he can’t dribble his man, he doesn’t create enough clear-cut-chances for his teammates etc.
It’s this wrong way of thinking which makes some of us under-value Oscar’s quality, at times. If we looked to him as a box to box CM in the first place (and judged him as a player in a deeper role than a 10), then we would not criticize him for not making enough goals. Conte is a very smart coach and he understood Oscar’s style of play right from the beginning. He understood that it’s the expectations you throw on a player, that determine whether fans are eventually pleased or not with his performances.
The biggest proof on these words, is that Cesc made 2 assists coming on as a sub, while Oscar has in 3 games so far not contributed to any goal in any way. It’s a clear sign that Conte (excuse me for the term, but I want to send a strong message) doesn’t give a fuck about Oscar’s end product. He judges him on other characteristics which are fundamental for the system. A smart coach like Conte cares to have players who facilitate the overall progress of his tactical scheme, rather than players who get the spotlights for individual efforts and stats, but lead to an overall less balanced side.
That said, it’s important to have a player like Cesc on the bench, to throw him in the last 25 minutes against a deep-lying defensive block, when you are desperate for a goal. But if you compare Chelsea’s defense so far to their defense last season, the stats talk for themselves. It’s no secret that strong defenses can win tournaments – let alone if you add the flair of the likes of Hazard, Willian (who by the way had a brilliant game today) et al. We need to get over this mentality of rating a CM on how many goals he scored and how many dribbles he makes, or even sometimes on how many through balls he plays.
Just like the great Arrigo Sacchi said in a recent interview: “Brazilians emphasize on individuality rather on group-work. Football is a game of eleven. Individuality can win you a game or two, but when if you are too dependent on two players, then the whole team will succumb when they miss your next game. But if your team is built on a specific system, then the whole shape will not be affected even if you lose three or four starters.”
With these words, I ask whether we want to repeat the mistake of 2014 by building a team that plays for Neymar, or whether we care more to make Brazil less and less dependent on individuals, and more and more dependent on team-work. I know Chelsea is not exactly the most inspiring pick for several Brazil NT fans, but Conte does not represent Mourinho – he represents Italian football. He led Juventus to the league title for the first time since 2006. The guy is a tactical genius, who over-achieved with Italy in Euro 2016 (very unfortunate ending).
I’m not saying either that Brazil must play the Italian way. Brazil will always show flair and skills by nature, but Tite himself is inspired by the Italian school – as well as Carlo Ancelotti (who is by far his number one coaching reference).
FyI, Conte is the disciple of Arrigo Sacchi who revolutionized Italian football with jos AC Milan. He was known for attacking football and for eliminating specialists. He wanted his midfielders to be polyvalent – two-way players. Conte may not have replicated his same system, but at least he learned the importance of building a system itself, and sticking to it at the expense of individuals.
I hope that Tite, while using his 4-1-4-1 formation which was inspired after taking lessons from Ancelotti in 2013/2014, will eventually find a spot for Oscar in his lineup as he continues to slowly regain form. Personally, I have a feeling that Tite will at some point select Oscar and test him as a pure CM (not attacking midfielder, where Brazil fans always expect such player to dribble 3-4 and score from nothing).
A possibility would be something like that:
Allan, Renato Augusto, Oscar
Costa, Gabigol, Neymar.
I believe this would be one of the best front sixes Brazil could come up with: it contains balance AS WELL AS flair. If Italy don’t show enough flair, it’s because they have Pellè not Costa, Eder not Gabigol, and Giaccherini not Neymar. Overall, this side will still represent Brazilian football – but with a few modifications by eliminating specialists and concentrating on prioritizing team-work.
For in the end, disappointment comes after very high expectations from players – sometimes above their capacity. If in your head, Oscar will never be good unless he dribbles 3 players and scores – then nothing can make you ever rate him. But if you look to him and judge him on whether he makes the system improve or regress, then you would understand the tactical importance of Oscar.
Oscar is not necessarily an eye-catching player, if you’re a fan of individual skills. He doesn’t bring enough magical moments, so when he enters in the last 15 minutes it makes it even more complicated for him to offer something that the fans will remember.
In his good times under Scolari, Oscar always struck me as a player who reads the game very well. Most people preferred him to be a starter over Ronaldinho at that time, because when Ronaldinho is bad – he is really bad and damages the whole shape of the team. Whereas Oscar, even when he doesn’t do anything to make you jump from your seat – he still manages to not hurt the team’s balance (especially during that time, in between 2012 and 2014). In the first World Cup qualifier against Chile, he pissed me so much because he ruined 2 or 3 counter attacking chances that could have ended in the back of the net. It was this game that convinced me he should be dropped from the National Team until further notice.
In brief, he’s a very tactical player and that’s why Italian coaches like Allegri and Conte are so keen on him. If he retains the level he has been showing in the beginning of this campaign, then he would be welcomed back with Tite (another coach who is very appreciative of Italian tactics).
Brazil has many things to lose tomorrow but also many things to win. The confidence of Brazilians and their interest in general towards the team has reached an all-time low after World Cup 2014, up to the recent centenary edition of Copa América. One of the most impressive aspects of this Olympic tournament is how the interest of the fans in their National Team has suddenly increased so quickly, after the victory against Colombia. Before the competition starts, most Brazilians I talked to would say that this side doesn’t stand a chance and will flop yet again. After 2 successive draws against South Africa and Iraq, people were already rooting for the Women’s NT and describing it as everything that the men’s NT was supposed to be. People even went furthermore to boo the team and cheer for the opponent Iraq, in the second game of Group A. Some went further than that, as in the picture below.
In brief, people were bashing the male’s NT with all kind of words. But behind all these claims, was hidden their genuine feelings of love for the Seleção. You can call it a miracle, you can call it whatever you want, but as soon as Brazil started playing some good football, Brazilians went crazy all over their beloved team. From a poll by Folha de SP 2 months ago where 90% of Brazilians who voted, claimed they had absolutely no interest nor belief in their NT, to this video below.
“Germany, you can wait. Your time is coming!”. That’s how Brazilians suddenly got excited all over again, as soon as Brazil stole the show against Honduras in front of more than 70k fans at the Maracana. What is happening is truly phenomenal. The truth is that Brazilians adore their NT, they would bleed for it. They were so hurt after the 7×1, that they pretended to hate what they love the most. It is the story of a lover who was betrayed by the one he adores. And Brazil no doubt, betrayed all its principles on that historical semi final against Germany. We get angry against the ones we love, but as soon as the slightest opportunity comes to fix things, we would do the maximum to bring things back to normal. The “ouro inédito” – as Brazilian press is obsessed in saying – is truly important, but what is far more important is that the pressure created by press about this “obligation” to win the Olympics, has for once, turned in the favor of the Seleção. People didn’t even care about Copa América, but thanks to the hype that this Olympic tournament received, Brazilians are watching every single game and feeling excited again for their NT, and this itself is a big victory. But you know what could ruin this beautiful moment and transform it to lamentable scenes, putting things back to zero point? Yes, ANOTHER defeat against Germany would make the situation even worse than it was a few weeks ago. Brazil has managed to win back the support of its own fans – the incredible opener of the tournament no doubt hyped Brazilians and made them feel proud about the spectacle they were able to show the whole world about Brazil’s history and culture, as well as the change in the technical staff. As a matter of fact, Dunga was hated by almost every football fan in Brazil, whereas Tite has the respect of everyone. He is considered – by a distance – the number one técnico. I sensed the positive vibes in Brazilian press since this decision, and everything which followed was a build-up for the maximum point of excitement.
From someone who deeply follows Brazilian football and is in constant contact with Brazilians, I can guarantee that around 90% had no interest in the NT during Copa América, whereas come the final against Germany, almost the whole country will be screaming ‘VAMOS BRASIL!’. This is the golden chance for the Seleçãoto console its lovers and go back to its roots. Tomorrow, it’s do or die – if I may say.
Olympic Gold is the only competition verified by FIFA which Brazil’s senior NT has never won, and breaking the curse tomorrow would no doubt be important, but what’s more important is winning back the confidence of the fans ahead of 2018, as well as making the players believe in their abilities again. The 7×1 may have been terrible for what it was in that moment, but it certainly also carried a mental block to the head of the average Brazilian football around the world. There is a big possibility that Brazil and Germany meet again in 2018, so it is much more preferable to meet them now, and break this psychological issue. A victory would mean that the fans and players together start believing in themselves yet again, that we can beat any opponent with the convenient tactical approach as well hard-work, team-work.
As a matter of fact, Germany’s coach – who has been in charge for 3 years – strictly confirmed that Brazil’s unjustified willingness to be dependent on Neymar is one of the main reasons of this losing mentality which has generated some of the biggest upsets in recent years.
On the bright side, this Brazil side in the Olympics has been the real definition of a team. It has not been over-dependent on any player. In more matches than not, Neymar has not been the best player. He has been one of the best, just like Marquinhos, Renato Augusto, Gabigol, Gabriel Jesus, Luan et al have been. This side reminds me of Italy 2006, where the whole team was the star of that World Cup-winning side, that you could not solely pick one.
Germany have the strongest attack in the competition with 21 goals but conceded 5, a goal difference of +16, whereas Brazil who did not conceded any goal, was able to find the net 12 times.
Tactically speaking, Brazil found many difficulties to link-up midfield with attack in the first two games. The 4-3-3 was not compact and failed to make the NT impose its style of play and dominate the opponent, while still exposing the back-line to several counter attacks. Ever since the change from 3 midfielders/3 attackers to 2 deep lying midfielder/4 attackers, the dynamism was back and the Seleçãowas able to score 12 goals in the next 3 games that followed. One could argue that, had Brazil found the net early into the game against South Africa and Iraq, then the score-line could have probably ended up with 3 or 4 as well. It’s a theory worth considering, as famous Brazilian journalist PVC pointed out. But at the same time, it is quite obvious that the change in the system improved the individual display of Douglas Santos, Renato Augusto, Neymar and Gabriel Jesus. In the first two games, Santos often confused his position with Neymar who looked lost on the left flank, which prevented Douglas from making the regular runs he likes to make. All what he did was looking towards Neymar and throwing him the ball, instead of acting as a traditional Brazilian lateral. On the other hand, Gabriel Jesus was being tactically abused and misused. Micale is a good coach with modern ideas, but the way he was killing Gabriel’s game almost made me doubt his coaching skills. He was basically asking him to stand in the penalty box and operate as a target man, as if he was Lewandoski or Klose. Then the crosses randomly came from Zeca, destined towards little Gabriel Jesus who looked like a homeless kid in front of the physical tall and strong defenders of South Africa and Iraq. He was surrounded in the box, on his first game of the tournament. For a 19-year old who is the youngest player in the squad and had his first season with Palmeiras in 2015 (so lacks big games experience), it was too much pressure he could handle. It is much easier for a player to drain the pressure if he is played in a position where gets many touches to the ball, so he doesn’t have to feel nervous whenever he gets a touch to it every 15 minutes.
As for Neymar, after 2 disappointing games, he finally found some of his level starting from the second half against Denmark, up to the victory against Honduras. It seems he is more comfortable with more spaces in a central position. The attacking quartet is always mobile, with constant movement trying to create space or pull back the center backs behind him, in order for Renato Augusto or any other squad member to make a long run and take advantage of the space he is able to attack – which kind of reminds us of how Vidal is so smart at sneeking in to the penalty box with his long runs at the convenient timing.
The duo between Walace and Renato Augusto in central midfield has been successful, providing defensive skills, ball interceptions and decent forward passing – i.e getting the ball to the front 4, who have been able to so far make good use of it as they approach the penalty box.
Whether Micale came up with the idea to change the tactics that failed him in the first 2 games, ahead of the decisive Denmark game which determined Brazil’s outcome in the competition, or not, what is certain is that the Seleçãois playing at a much higher level than the beginning of the tournament.
Will it be enough against an experienced German side with World Cup winner Ginter, the 2 Benders in central midfield who offer the ability to control possession as well as attacking trio Max Meyer, Gnabry and Nils Petersen or will the 5-time World Champions take advantage of the situation to signal the revival of the footballing giant? The answer is in less than 24 hours. Follow all the updates on Twitter account @BrazilStats2.
NOTE: Both sides will be missing a few key players, but what is certain is that both sides are also taking the competition seriously and tried their best to secure the best available players – which suggests that the winner will take full merit, especially that as Bayern coach Carlo Ancelotti recently pointed out: the main success of Germany’s NT has started in developing youth categories. Several players they are using in this tournament will become main NT regulars in the future. We hope that so is the case of Brazil’s NT as well.
As the title suggest, Brazilian football has truly lost its identity in the past few years. Until a decade ago or so, seeing someone wearing the yellow shirt in the Middle East, Africa or even around the world, did not mean that the one wearing it was Brazilian. It just suggested that it’s someone who is crazy about beautiful football.
Winning is very important, but the reason the seleção so many lovers across the globe, is mainly not even because of the 5 stars. As a matter of fact, ‘Brasil 82’ failed to achieve silverware, but still managed to win the hearts of the whole viewers who followed that tournament. After 34 years, this team is still referred to and talked of, much more than several World Cup winning sides throughout history. People loved that free-flowing, fearless, joyful type of football which the country seems to be missing lately. Today, it appears that players representing Brazil play with fear instead of joy. It’s as if the shirt weighed too much for them, as if this generation of players did not deserve to represent Brazil, but are only doing it because someone had to wear it, after all.
We have reached a stage where, we don’t even want to win the World Cup as badly as we want to hear supporters of other teams say: “Brazil was so beautiful to watch, in this tournament!”
Are the talents really not worth representing the verde amarela anymore, or are there other factors preventing them from emerging? Me thinks the latter.
Brazilian coaches who took charge of the biggest clubs in the Brasileirão as well as the National Team in the past few years have appeared to be dinosaurs, whenever they were exposed against more advanced tactical approaches at the international stage. For other South American countries, winning any cup would be considered a national triumph, even for Argentina – who are yet to win any since 24 years. But for Brazil’s case, the situation is very different. Winning the Copa América in 2007 as well as the Confederations Cup in 2009 were not enough to save Dunga’s head after early elimination in the 2010 World Cup. People cared too much about Brazil’s not-so-Brazilian style under his guidance, as well the failure in the only competition that actually mattered, to give him a second chance. It seemed that since he took charge, he killed the joy that the players felt when playing for Brazil, and the anger as well as nervousness in his personality were transmitted to the players he picked, which led to inevitable consequences against Holland, with notably Felipe Melo losing his head against Arjen Robben, and reacting to his own goal mistake, by getting sent off, rather than keeping his nerves calm. As you could have noticed, the pleasures of the players to play was lost. It was as if they were representing Brazil as an obligation to win, rather than being themselves and entertain by nature.
The case under Brazilian coaches who followed Dunga was not too different, as the team had reached a time where the fans started to lose their affection and the unconditional love they used to receive, suddenly transformed into anger and non-stop criticism. The media played and still plays a very big role in causing the fans to turn against the team and apply furthermore pressure on the players, which leads them into playing with fear rather than with joy.
After the World Cup opener against Croatia in 2014, Thiago Silva revealed in an interview that during the first 20 minutes, he felt completely lost and had no idea what he was doing. He felt higher pressure than he had ever endured during a football game. He, as well as the rest of the group, were always treating the idea in their pre-tournament interviews as an obligation to win because it was on home soil. Well, how can you blame the players when the media is so exigent, puts too much pressure than perhaps 99% of athletes in various sports can handle? Thiago Silva as well as the rest, all played games at the highest level in European football, but almost never panic this way nor succumb to pressure. Which suggests that the problem is not the players anymore, but rather Brazilian media/crowd, the CBF, the coach and the organization in general.
Hypocrisy dominates in many cases whenever a Brazilian judges the NT. It’s often epic when he accuses the CBF of corruption (and they are certainly the gods of it, if this term was to exist), but at the same time forgets that he supports a club which has directors almost as bad as the one in charge of the FA. The Argentinian FA is on par with the CBF in terms of corruption (even-though they’d probably like their NT to be on par in terms of more important stuff such as historical success, cough), although the Argentinian crowd is always very passionate whenever it comes down to the Selección, and is always willing to give unconditional support in every single game, because they are really patriotic and honest about their feelings. The difference between the average Argentinian and the average Brazilian is that for the former, Argentina is the best at everything whereas for the latter, Brazil is the worst – everything foreign is better.
I will avoid entering more cultural debates in a football related article, although it was inevitable to give this aspect a mention, as I strictly consider it one of the many factors blocking the success of Brazilian football.
My conviction is that Brazilian players are the victims of media, fans, philosophical cultures and outdated tactics used by coaches starting from youth academies until the National Team.
Moving on to the next point, is it possible for Brazil to jump over these obstacles and seek for a new beginning? While it is impossible to change the opinion of media as well fans before achieving any major triumph, the biggest factor open for change was obviously the tactical aspect.
As a matter of fact, the revolution – as I insist on calling it – started in 2015 when [unknown for many] coach Rogério Micale was appointed 2 weeks before World Cup under 20. From a very dull, uninspiring side which couldn’t impress in the equivalent of Copa América under 20 in January, Brazil transformed into a side that played the most attractive football in the verge of 5 months. Or actually, 2 weeks because this is the short period Micale had the change to train the team for.
With a side that prioritized controlling the ball, playing free-flowing football where the fullbacks were effectively wingers, and where the center backs played so high up on the pitch, Brazil was criticized for leaving too much spaces, an accusing which the coach considered himself “proud of”:
The philosophy of this man is essentially based on taking risks and doing everything possible to dominate the game, rather than to give the ball away and count on counter attacks, as most Brazilian coaches have been doing in recent times. Telê Santana is dead, but it appears that if his soil was to be reincarnated in a young coach, than Rogério Micale would be your guy.
With a clear 4-2-3-1 system which often transformed into a 2-4-3-1 with the laterais going forward (just like Leonardo and Junior with Santana in 1982), Brazil surpassed the obstacles and despite lack of preparation as well as missing several stars, the team was able to dominate the final but was unlucky to concede a late goal in extra time and lose 1-2 against eventual champions, Serbia.
Brazil lost World Cup under 20, yes. But for the first time since a while, I noticed that so many people in Brazil were overall very satisfied with what they had seen. It was a matter of recovering identity at the expense losing gold. While this time, it will be very hard to spare critics of losing the Olympics at home after saving Neymar fresh for it at the cost of missing Copa América – the reactions of prioritizing the attractive performance over silverware with Micale in 2015, suggests that if Brazil can manage to mix success with beauty in Rio, then the affection of the fans could grow again, and the excitement could be back.
As a matter of fact, I was surprised with the excitement and hype that the appointment of Tite as head coach of the main selection, has led to. I did not see this optimism with some, even after the famous 3-0 victory against Spain in 2013. It seems that some people who had lost interest in watching Brazil games since a while, are suddenly very curious to see what the coach who has basically won it all (from regional state league of SP, to club World Cup final against Chelsea) with Corinthians, will do with this generation of players. He is considered by far the best active Brazilian coach, and took special lessons from – at that time Real Madrid boss – Carlo Ancelotti in 2014, to reinvent himself and come up with modern ideas which Brazilian football was missing, to help him win the league in 2015.
To give you a little example: In Brazil, the defensive midfielder is referred to as primeiro volante. He is usually who a player who basically operates as third ‘zagueiro’ (center back). His role is pretty much limited to winning the ball back. Tite thought that Ralf, who was considered a titular indiscutivel, offered very little in the build up and decided to bench him – a step that certainly no Brazilian coach would have had the audacity to do. The timão eventually ended up champion, by playing a very collective football without depending on one star to make the difference. Tite’s flexibility of updating himself and jumping from the 4-2-2-2 which he used to win the Libertadores in 2012, to the 4-1-4-1 system (which Dunga later on tried to copy) was impressive.
With such people in charge of nurturing Brazil’s rising generation of players, I believe that we are on the right track – despite admitting that the process will take enough time. Tite is not exactly the jogo-bonito-type-of-coach that Micale is, but he at least comes up with modern ideas different from the outdated ones we had been seeing for years. If his readiness to trust young blood in attack, after struggling for years and years with limited strikers who offer nothing but occasional finishes inside the box, doesn’t excite you then I don’t know what will.
Besides that, Tite was also very clear that he would not punish a player for being emotional. Let’s get back to the beginning of the article about Dunga making players nervous and killing their joy of playing football. With Tite, they will at least have the freedom to be themselves as humans, before anything. And for me as someone who believes the players are victims, I consequently believe that Tite’s approach is the way to go forward. Brazilians never played good football when they were treated like military. The players like to enter the pitch singing, dancing, listen to music and look to the game as a “party”, as history has shown.
In terms of talent pool, Brazil may be far from the old times but I am certainly convinced that we are top 5 in the world, so must at least play like it. We have the requirements to play a modern style of football while sticking to other ideas and our school. I don’t believe that we have to copy anyone, we just have evolve ourselves in order to take advantage of our resources with a rate, close as much as possible to 100%. Because in the past years, it is quite obvious that Brazil has not put into good use more than half of this (regardless of numbers and % speculations, you certainly get the point that I am trying to make).
I will not expend all the ideas about the outcome of Brazil’s NT today, I will leave some of it for the other articles to come. In the next article which will be published by next week, the discussion will be about Brazil’s starting lineup for the Olympics, ahead of the friendly fixture against Japan on July 30. Wait for it, and meanwhile do not forget to follow the updates on my Twitter account (@BrazilStats2) as well as my Facebook page: (https://www.facebook.com/BrazilNT/)
Brazilian football has always had some of the best attackers throughout history, from Garrincha, Pelé, Tostão, Rivelino and Zico, to Romário, Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho, to name a few. It is therefor not surprising to hear complaints about the Seleção’s over-reliance on one man, in the past few years.
“What if he gets injured, or suspended?” – This is the reasonable question that every fan asks, whenever Neymar’s name in mentioned. He, who seemed to be the savior of Brazilian football in between 2012 and 2014, is no longer considered so, since the famous semi final against Germany in 2014. It took Brazilians a big wake-up call from the Germans, to make them realize that relying on one man to save the day – á la Maradona 86 – does no longer work. As a matter of fact, Neymar is far from being Maradona, and after his recent incidents against Colombia in Copa América 2015 and Uruguay in a World Cup qualifier in March, Brazil fans have raised a lot of question marks towards his discipline. Some famous local journalists have even went furthermore, and questioned Neymar’s dedication for the 5-time World Champions.
Missing out on the centenary edition of Copa América – for whatever reason – and sending a message on Instagram to “give moral lessons for Brazilians who doubted the National Team”, did not help his case either. Soon as Neymar landed in Rio’s airport after his commercial trip in USA, he was quick to receivers the jeers from a couple of Brazilians there, who did not take it easy on him, to say the least. Meanwhile, the Barcelona star was receiving plenty of abusive comments under his Instagram post, which led him to publish another post and apologize for his immature previous one. To hit the point, there is more than one reason why Brazil cannot consider Neymar “o salvador”, anymore. Doubting his football skills would be idiotic, it is certain that he has the quality to play an important role for Brazil in the next few years. But what is also certain is that he will need better teammates than Hulk and Fred, to help him make the difference. Stepping down as captain could help remove some of the pressure away, to begin with.
It’s been 6 years now, since Luís Fabiano’s last official game in 2010 and the National Team is yet to find a number 9 who is worthy to fill the shoes. Not that Fabiano was comparable to Ronaldo, but at least he did his job and was a reliable focal point for around 3 years. Since then, Pato, Fred, Jô, Diego Tardelli and Jonas, to name a few, have tried and failed to live up to the pressure of the famous ‘camisa nove’.
So, will the curse continue or does Brazil have genuine talents who are potentially capable of filling this vacant spot in the next couple of years? Me thinks……YES.
Here’s a look at 2 young attackers who have shown that they deserve some of the attention.
GABRIEL BARBOSA ‘GABIGOL’:
Born and raised at São Bernardo, a municipality in the state of São Paulo, Gabriel has only really experienced one club in his whole life. Having joined Santos at the age of 8, he had to wait for 8 more years in order to realize his childhood dream and make his first-team debut in 2013. Coincidentally (or not?), Santos chose to hand him this opportunity in Neymar’s farewell game against Flamengo. Meanwhile, the Santos academy product lived up to the ‘gol’ part labeled to him during his time at the youth levels, due to his ease at finding the back of the net. In fact, he fast became the under 20 player with the most league goals in the world:
Physically strong enough, with a low center of gravity and the ability to play with his back turned to goal, Gabigol improved a lot since Dorival JR took charge of the Paulista club last season. Being deployed most of the time on the right flank, he added different aspects to his game, such as his ability to time the run behind the back of defenders whenever he receives Lucas Lima’s through balls as well as his ability to read the game and play the right pass at the right moment.
Overall, with his eye for goal and his versatility to play anywhere in attack, Gabriel has the qualities to master the ‘Brazilian striker role’ – a role that requires the striker to actually……be a striker, and a playmaker at the same time. Fred received a lot of criticism in the World Cup, for barely being a poacher. And what if the team failed to create clear cut chances, what does the man up top serve for? Gabriel would certainly drop deeper and add more values than any static finisher could offer. At the age of 19, he is already being linked to several European clubs. It is no surprise that such a talented forward was able to score 7 minutes after making his Brazil debut against Panama, and managed to add another goal a few days later against Haiti in Copa América. His performance against Peru, left positive signs. It is certain that most Brazil fans will be looking forward to see more of him, and already prefer him over veteran options such as Ricardo Oliveira and Jonas.
Fun fact: Gabigol was the top scorer of the Copa do Brasil in 2015 with 8 goals. His dream was to simply play for Santos, but he now wears the significant number 10 jersey, which ‘O Rei’ made special a couple of decades ago, and has already scored over 50 goals for the Paulista club.
GABRIEL JESUS:
Born in São Paulo, he learnt football by playing on the streets with his friends – which is far from surprising for the average Brazilian footballer, as history has shown. In fact, almost everything in Gabriel’s style of play reminds us of the essence of Brazilian football. His ease on the ball, his willingness to improvise and come up with a new skill in every game as well his footwork that confuses the defenders, have quickly drawn some comparisons with Neymar. Former Santos captain Edu Dracena who accompanied the development of the current Barcelona ace, believes that Gabriel’s ceiling may not be inferior to his countryman.
While he was most of the time a striker at Palmeiras’ youth levels, Brazil U20 coach Rogério Micale decided it was better to use him on the right flank in the World Cup, last year. It was there where Gabriel made his biggest impact, and imposed himself as arguably the player of the tournament. He was the one making things happen game after game, and he was as a result the difference from a dull Brazil side in the equivalent of Copa América U20, to an entertaining team that reached the final of the World Cup a few months later. With his rainbow flicks, chapéus and backheels, Gabriel attracted the eye of everyone who followed that competition……And rightly so.
Only recently when new Palmeiras coach Cuca was appointed, Gabriel Jesus has started to play again in his initial position as central forward, forming a duo with fellow promising youngster Roger Guedes. Overall, he is having a wonderful season, having already reached 14 goals, including 4 in his Libertadores debut. In comparison with Gabigol – who already reached 12 goals in all competitions – Gabriel Jesus has more pace, is more skillful and is better at beating his opponent. That said, it does not imply that Gabigol has a weakness in any of these mentioned attributes. In fact, he impresses at all of them, but in a lower level than his countryman. On the other hand, Gabigol wins the race in terms of physicality, decision making, reading the game better, playmaking skills as well as in athleticism. The Santos man’s game seems to be more mature now, I would say he is readier for Europe, but Gabriel Jesus has the higher ceiling, between the two. In fact, Gabigol made his Brazilian league debut in 2013 (as mentioned above), whereas Gabriel Jesus had to wait until 2015 to finally have a full season with the Verdão’s first team. It is therefor unfair to judge the two 19-year old starlets, who by the way both scored a brace in their last game, and made a wonderful nutmeg. Take that, for a start of a rivalry in the making. Or at least that’s what we as Brazil fans would like to see, after years of battle between Cristiano and Messi – imagine how amazing it would be if one of these 2 Brazilians (and why not both) can go all the way and challenge Neymar for the best player in the world in a couple of years, after the current Real Madrid and Barcelona attackers decide to stop their domination. For in the end, the last player who won the Ballon d’Or before them, was none other than Ricardo – made in Brazil – Kaká.
The reason Dunga kept Elias 87 minutes against Ecuador and the reason why Elias will continue to be a starter is because the squad lacks a player with similar style of play (a real box-to-box CM) and Dunga is not ready to change his tactical scheme of 4-1-4-1, so prefers sticking to Elias over trying a new system
My question is very easy: if you consider this position so important and if you are so resilient on a specific scheme, isn’t the minimum of requirements that you make sure that in a squad of 23 players, there is at least one suitable replacement for each “key” position?
Couldn’t Dunga find a better player to apply this role, than this piece of garbage? Elias was smart at creating himself space, making long runs at the right time. But what is the use of all this, if he cannot take advantage of the ball, even if he almost was alone in front of goal? He is just technically so woeful and far from the required level. Allan from Napoli would have made Dunga look like a tactical genius, considering the difference in gap between him and Elias. With Allan, a very good box to box CM, Dunga’s system would have actually looked bright. The idea worked, and Elias did find himself as an extra man providing the support for attack, but it’s that he does not have the requirements to play in the final third. What’s the use of getting him so much in dangerous area, instead of concentrating on getting more technical players there – so that they can actually take advantage of it?
As someone said the other day, Dunga’s system itself is not the problem. I don’t even find it defensive. Renato Augusto was actually a real number 10 at Leverkusen and played higher at Corinthians. Elias is actually very offensive and always makes long runs. The problem is that they’re just……well, WOEFUL. Renato used to be much better but I guess he lost a lot of his abilities after going to China. And Corinthians fans are the first to say that Elias is living his worst phase ever at Corinthians. Why Dunga, why are you doing this to yourself? Your ideas are not as bad as people think, but even if you buy a FIFA 16 CD to a teenager and give him a console, he would still make a much better selection of players than you.
Brazil actually did well against Ecuador in terms of maintaining possession, releasing the ball from the back and dealing with high pressure. What the team lacked was an attacker above the average to make the difference in the final third, such as Di Maria or Neymar. The system itself is not the problem, but Dunga’s stupid picks of players are what are stalling Brazil at the moment.
I’d like to begin the article with a reminder that I only post around here on occasions, and that most of my comments are usually on Twitter at the new account [@BrazilStats2].
Brazil’s squad was confirmed yesterday, and it featured several surprises including negatives and positives. See full squad here:
Let’s begin with the exclusions. It is clear that the CBF do not prioritize winning this competition, and Neymar’s exclusion is perhaps one of the biggest indicators. The number one priority is be the Olympics game, which will be hosted in Brazil in 3 months from now.
On the other hand, the exclusion of Thiago Silva cannot be complained, although Dunga indirectly made it clear for the first yesterday, that the PSG captain is effectively on his “blacklist”, by hinting that some players who are mentally weak under pressure may never be selected again [as long as he is coach]. And it doesn’t take a genius to guess who he was referring to. Nonetheless, being able to rely on ‘arguably’ the best defender in the world is an added quality for any team.
Moving on in the pecking order, the exclusion of Roberto Firmino perhaps stood out as a big surprise, considering the good season he is having right from his first season in arguably the toughest league in the world.
Excluded for technical reasons: David Luiz and Marcelo received many critics after the World Cup semi final against Germany due to their disastrous defending. Both players have their fans, but have a large amount of Brazil NT supporters who do not want them anywhere near the team. Leaving out the PSG center back did not raise many voices. As for Marcelo, his exclusion would have been much more understandable, had he been replaced by Filipe Luis and Alex Sandro.
Untested choices who could have made the difference: Alex Sandro, Allan, Ganso, Lucas Moura and Jonas have all had a good season at their clubs. To put it in this way: selecting any of them would have made sense.
Playing in China, poor NT record, old age or injured for a long time: The call-up of the likes of Gil, Renato Augusto, Dani Alves, Elias, Hulk and Rafinha led to many critics, questioning Dunga’s criteria. Some of them play in a league where the level is still questionable, others have been given more chances at the NT than we can remember but never really impressed, and then you Ricardo Oliveira who is closing in on his 36th birthday. Last but not least, Rafinha has been injured for the largest part of the season and barely played a few games, so question marks on his fitness, and on whether he would not have benefited from an extra time of rest, so he can be fit for the Olympics where he would have actually been more needed. Or to simply put it this way, selecting him over players with a higher level such Allan and Ganso who have both had a great time at Napoli and SPFC, seems unfair.
Ganso has effectively been convincing in 2016, with 5 goals and 6 assists to his tally already. Some journalists believe he has been THE most influential player in Libertadores.
Late arrivals: The UEFA Champions League final will be held on May 28, which means that Filipe Luis and Casemiro will not be able to join the selection on May 22.
Calendar conflict: Several players selected from the Brazilian league will miss important games for their clubs, as the Brasileiro will not be stopped during Copa América.
So many flaws and questionable decisions, right? Now let’s concentrate on the less popular part. Most people highlighted the negatives (and rightly so), but they should never hinder the importance of the few positives in this call-up.
Valorizing the Brazilian league: The call-up has featured 8 players from the Brasileiro, more than any other league. This helps young locals such whose number one dream is to represent Brazil’s NT, to resist European offers at an early age, and to continue their development in Brazil for a longer time. Subsequently, the league will be stronger and more interesting to watch, which can only be reflected positively on Brazilian football in long term.
Average age per player and the number of U23 selected: While the likes of Marcelo Grohe, Alex Sandro, Fernandinho and, Roberto Firmino Lucas Moura were left out, knowing that the reason “some” of them was dropped, was to make space for players from the Olympic NT to gain experience, such as Ederson, Rodrigo Caio, Douglas Santos and Gabigol, makes it less painful. Indeed, 8 players from the selected squad are within the Olympic age, so will have the chance to gain experience and be tested up close during Copa América. Back to the initial point, RE: CBF prioritizing the Olympics over the South American cup, as the final will be hosted in Rio, and it’s the competition Brazil’s NT has never won. In fact, there is a huge agreement in Brazil by media and fans, that the Olympics is INDEED more important than Copa América.
At the same time, one could hope that Dunga would have followed this logic up until the end, and selected Lucas Moura and Firmino over Hulk and Oliveira who already had their chances. These 2 picks were perhaps the most frustrating, but despite that, it does not hinder the fact that trusting 8 players under the age of 23 is a very important step, which we did not see in last year’s Copa América. At least it gives us some bits of hope for the future. Another positive point is the comeback of Casemiro, who never really had his chance at the NT. With the brilliant season he is having for one of the biggest clubs in the world, it was no doubt a source of joy to see him make the cut. In fact, Brazil’s 23-man squad averages less than 25 years of age per player, which will possibly be the youngest squad in Copa América. Then you have Ricardo Oliveira who is almost 36. I will admit that this mixture is a bit surprising, but this leads me to think that the CBF agreed with Dunga on selecting a specific number of U23 players, but left him the freedom to select the remainder of the squad without age limitations.
As a coach who wants to keep his job, he chose Oliveira regardless of his age. It is normal that a coach under pressure tries to select the players who “he” deems help him bring results. It’s very debatable whether Ricardo Oliveira can REALLY be this guy, but that’s what Dunga thinks, at least. He will be judged on his decisions next month.
BONUS: Santos is the club with the most representatives (3). Lucas Lima, Gabigol and Ricardo Oliveira will be hoping to replicate their club form.
Extra comments: Besides Willian and Douglas Costa, the squad does not feature any natural winger. This could be a negative and a positive at the same time, i.e a sword with 2 blades. When the duo eventually get tired and will need to be subbed out, there will be no real winger waiting to replace them. On the other hand, the interesting part is that Gabigol plays as wide forward at Santos, as Oliveira usually occupies the central attacker role. This could lead to more chances of Gabriel gaining playing time, was it on the wing (same function he occupies at Santos) or in central attack (a function he is very capable of occupying as well). In both cases, it will be very interesting to see him in action, as he is the bright hope of Brazilian football. Other players able to occupy a wide role: Lucas Lima, Hulk and Rafinha.
Yesterday in the Spanish classic, we witnessed a very compact Real Madrid side, as opposed to the first leg where we only saw one team playing with Madrid’s midfield being non existent. Fans of offensive football would tell you playing a destructor makes the team boring, but we can conclude from these 2 Liga games that Barcelona felt much more comfortable when Casemiro was not involved. Without him in the first leg, Real was lost – and was disappointing defensively, as well as offensively. You cannot expect to entertain when exposing your midfield would lead into a massacre from the opponent. The 4-0 loss at the Santiago Bernabéu was not too entertaining, now was it?
The presence of Casemiro gave Real Madrid a lot of balance, and his inclusion helped neutralize Lionel Messi, as well as Neymar, who are usually the essence of almost every Barcelona attack with their playmaking skills.
So Casemiro, the “destructor”, made Real Madrid more creative and more effective offensively. Weird thought, isn’t it? But if you think of it, how many Barcelona attacks he blocked, and if you think of how many times he released Bale and Cristiano yesterday on the flanks, then you will realize that this “pragmatic” option, directly led to an improvement in both aspects of the game. If you still can’t see the point I’m trying to make, then let’s try reaching it from a different angle. Casemiro was replaced by Isco or James Rodriguez yesterday <=> Neymar and Messi had fun <=> Madrid players were too scared to even take such risks at going forward (we saw Pepe leading an attack in Barcelona’s penalty box in the 90th minute, with Real Madrid down to 10. Wait, what?) <=> the outcome of the game ended with the same scenario as the 4-0.
The fact Casemiro is so strong defensively indirectly gives people an impression that his technique is far below average. Because he comes in to replace the talented Isco and James Rodriguez, people tempt to think that he is automatically a boring defensive choice, which help them form an idea that he’s a “brainless” player who only relies on being a powerhouse. And this is obviously…….WRONG.
Can we take a moment to appreciate how quickly Carlos Henrique releases the ball and invites Real Madrid for a counter attack? This is called direct football, and this is something very hard to play, with a midfield based on Luiz Gustavo and Fernandinho, who happen to be the kings of backside passes. The 24-year old Real Madrid “star”, on the other hand, doesn’t lack the audacity, vision, nor the creativity to play forward balls. Imagine him releasing Douglas Costa, Lucas Moura, Neymar and Willian, the way he does with Bale and Cristiano. How much of an offensive improvement would that be? Add to the fact, he defends better than Gustavo and Fernandinho combined. Which help me reach the BIG point: Brazil’s NT should be inspired by Zidane’s Real Madrid, in World Cup 2018.
Why?
To directly relate, Brazil’s trashing at the hands of Germany reminds us of Real Madrid’s 4-0 trashing at the hands of Barcelona. Scolari favored a backline which was probably better at attacking than defending, as well as a midfield duo of Gustavo and Fernandinho, who were inept at creating, but also, not anywhere near effective at defending as we’d have expected them. The fact that these 2 destructors together, were not enough to stop Muller and Klose, whereas Casemiro by himself as a sole destructor, did a much better job against a far more deadly front line (MSN), is already very telling. Casemiro not only improves Brazil defensively, but his inclusion also permits the coach to spare the use of another defensive midfielder, at the expense of a more creative playmaker. So in the end, we’d be replacing Gustavo and Fernandinho, with Casemiro and Lucas Lima + Coutinho. Gustavo makes us feel that playing him without another defensive midfielder is very risky, but with Casemiro who is proven against the world’s most deadly trio, you could not feel more confident. As a result, Brazil’s defense, build up play and creative would improve altogether. Casemiro’s inclusion helped Kroos and Modric concentrate on creating with more freedom. Likewise, Lucas Lima and Coutinho can play the same role for Brazil. They do not have the same quality, but they are excellent players, nonetheless, with plenty of room for improvement, due to their age.
As for the backline: Real Madrid already counts on Marcelo, as well as Danilo in some games. Replacing Sergio Ramos and Pepe with Thiago Silva and Marquinhos, would not be a downgrade.
The front three: Bale, Benzema and Crsitiano are better at scoring goals than Lucas Moura, Douglas Costa and Neymar (as a trio). However, in terms of pace, dribbling skills, close control and improvisation, Brazil’s front 3 is nothing less, with wide rooms for additions by 2018, as the talents continue to raise (Gabigol and Gabriel Jesus are the obvious 2 examples).
To conclude, I believe Brazil’s NT must play to the strengths of its players. Trying to fight Spain and Germany for retaining possession would be a lost war, as their players are already used to that since youth academies. Which is why, Brazil would be better off with a coach who follows Ancelotti’s way, than with Pep Guardiola who gets a lot of hype just because of his reputation, when it comes to the Brazil job. Ancelotti, or a student of his, is exactly what Brazil’s NT needs, because such are the characteristics of the players we have. I do not believe that Guardiola or any coach, can “revolutionize” Brazilian football as a whole, when he doesn’t have the same type of midfielders as Spain or Germany, and when he has to wait 130 days every time to be reunited with the NT. Such revolution would have to start from youth academies, and by replacing the CBF with a much more competent FA.
With a coach like Zidane or Ancelotti, we could hope to see a Brazil lineup as below:
In the previous game against Peru, Neymar’s performance was not outstanding, but by playing in center, he managed to occupy defenders for several moments of the game, enough time for Willian and Douglas Costa to both pull out a Man of the Match worthy performance. Óscar Tabárez commented on the matter saying that he would not repeat Peru’s mistake of putting a special plan to neutralize Neymar, because Brazil is bigger than just him.
Knowing Tabárez, I really doubt he will let Neymar enjoy life tomorrow. I still think that Uruguay will probably play deep, with a flat 4-4-2 composed of 3 lines. Cavani may not have a sparkling first touch nor an amazing technique, but he sure has a high work rate and offers defensive contribution when needed (he is used to playing on the wing at PSG, as you probably already know). As for Suárez, he’s got nothing to envy on Edinson. He’s a much better striker, but in addition to that, is also known to have a very high work rate. So I’d expect both of them to apply high pressure on Brazil’s center backs, at least in the beginning of the game. I’ve never felt secure about Miranda’s ball playing abilities, I’ve always thought that he panics under pressure and loses the ball in avoidable situations. Knowing Óscar, I’m sure he’d have studied every little bit of Brazil’s weaknesses and already has his plan set for the game (it was obvious when he stated during his presser that he analyzed Brazil’s game against Peru and pulled out conclusions).
Godin and Gimenez’s absences are important, but overall, the more important factor is that Tabárez has been in charge of Uruguay’s NT since 2006. He knows every single thing about his players and does not have any doubts about what they are good at, and what they aren’t.
On the other hand, Dunga doesn’t even know whether Renato Augusto’s physical condition is not below the average. He even said it in his pre-match conference a few hours earlier, that he will test Renato tomorrow, and that the substitute is ready in case he couldn’t keep up with the rhythm of the game.
Why is Renato starting? I’m not saying it’s right nor wrong, but I will just explain how Dunga thinks:
He was satisfied with Brazil’s performance against Peru and wants to retain the same team, or at least the most possibly close one. With Elias’ injury, Dunga preferred to replace him with the player who is the “closest” to him, rather than changing his whole tactical setup to make room for Coutinho in, say, a 4-2-3-1. Elias was playing as segundo volante (obviously he was far from the required level, I’d much rather have Arturo Vidal), and Coutinho cannot play this same role. In fact, Coutinho never played as volante in all his career. With lack of time to make new experiments, and after 130 days since the last game, Dunga preferred to maintain his 4-5-1. When a starter is out, a player-to-play change will be made, system remains. That’s how Dunga works.
And this is probably one of the big disadvantages of a coach whose been in charge for 10 years, and another one whose been there for a year.
I was just explaining Dunga’s analysis, as for my own opinion: I’m actually torn apart. I really fancy Coutinho and you can see it throughout my tweets over the season, but at the same time, whenever I watch him against physical sides, he always struggles a lot, just like he did in Copa América. And Uruguay, if anything, is as physical as a South American side could get. They beat Chile 3×0 with just 19% possession (or something close to that). They rely a lot on aerial duels and set pieces to get the goals (Diego Godin is by the way their leading top scorer in the qualifier, having scored 3 out of their 9 goals, and all of them from set pieces). From this perspective, I really don’t mind if Coutinho does not start tomorrow. If we were facing a team that relies on technical abilities rather than physicality, such as Spain for example, I’d have certainly fancied Coutinho. That said, I’d still count on him as a joker in the second half. I’d probably bring him on as soon as the 60th minute, or so.
On the other hand, expressing my uncertainty about Coutinho starting, does not, in any way, mean that I am reassured about Fernandinho and Renato Augusto.
While Fernandinho has been impressive for City this season, he has never been as good for the NT. I watched City away to Sevilla in the UCL, and I thought he was the best player on the pitch, playing as a more advanced CM than usual, being shielded by Fernando who was behind him. He was brilliant in making long runs and supporting the attack, and that’s exactly what we’ll need tomorrow in order to have a numerical advantage in some situations (although I really doubt that Uruguay will leave much spaces).
As for Renato, as I am unsure about his physical condition, I am as well resilient on having a player with his characteristics in the team. Brazilian schools have only produced destructors (primeiro volantes like Casemiro/Luiz Gustavo etc) and brainless runners (segundo volantes like Ramires) in recent years. And this is not a coincidence (we’ll talk about it some other time). But in brief, to hit the point, European schools prefer deep lying playmakers such as Verratti, Pirlo, Xabi Alonso, Toni Kroos et al in such positions.
Can you notice the difference? Not just in level, but also in style of play. Renato is obviously very far from reaching the level of any of the mentioned names above, but he is, at least, the closest Brazilian volante to be a deep lying playmaker. At Corinthians, he used to play this same position, so he is already used to it. In fact, it’s no secret that Dunga was inspired by Tite’s 4-5-1 that dominated the Brazilian league, with Elias and Renato as central midfielders. That team played the best passing football in Brazil (only Santos in the second half of the season under Dorival JR comes close). While we may have a lot of remorse about Dunga’s players selection, it’s nice to see that the tactical formation he is building the team on at the moment, prioritizes the group rather than the individuals. In fact, Corinthians did not have a “main man” when they won the league. It was truly a cohesive side, which won the respect of almost all Brazilian journalists and pundits. Most Brazilians even wanted Tite to replace Dunga as coach (and I certainly don’t mind him taking the job, but I will certainly never root against my team to lose just so someone gets sacked. Winning is always important for confidence, and if Dunga can turn things around, then I will not be sad. I don’t mind Brazil achieving success with him, even though it seems unlikely at the moment, but as long as there is hope, I will support my team).
As for my prediction to the outcome of the game, I think that a 1×1 draw may not be too far away. I don’t trust a backline with Dani Alves and David Luiz, who should not even be selected. There is big doubt about the readiness of Renato Augusto, although if he plays the way he did against Peru, then I’ll be very satisfied, even if he doesn’t score, as I thought the tactical role he played in that game was very important.
Otherwise, Neymar had a, let me say, disappointing 2015 year with Brazil in official games. You all know the Copa América story. But I thought he was a bit disappointing (for his standards, well few days after he helped Barcelona hammer Madrid at the Santiago with a Man of the Match performance), in his first 2 World Cup qualifiers against Argentina and Peru. I hope that we retrieve tomorrow the real Neymar. For in the end, Brazil’s NT has always counted on players with individual brilliance to set ties apart and make the difference in decisive moments.
Last but not least, this is going to be Brazil’s lineup against Uruguay:
Brazil Stats 